Unpacking the Streaming Overlap: Who's Subscribed to Both?

The Bold Projections: David Ellison's Vision for a Unified Streaming Giant

David Ellison, the chief of Skydance, recently articulated an ambitious future for a combined entity of Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount. He projected a staggering subscriber base exceeding 200 million for this new media conglomerate. This figure, though substantial, appears to be a conservative estimate when considering the individual subscriber counts of Paramount+ and Warner Bros. Discovery at the close of 2025. Paramount+ boasted nearly 79 million subscribers, while Warner Bros. Discovery had approximately 131.6 million, encompassing both linear HBO and Discovery+ users. This combined total of over 210 million subscribers suggests Ellison's forecast might even be understated, with further growth anticipated by the projected third-quarter closing of the deal.

Comparing Giants: The New Entity's Standing Against Netflix and Amazon Prime Video

While the combined subscriber numbers for a merged Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount present an impressive figure, they still lag behind streaming titan Netflix, which reported over 325 million global subscribers by the end of 2025. This disparity is partly attributable to Netflix's expansive global presence, operating in 190 regions, significantly more than HBO Max's approximately 90 markets and Paramount+'s even smaller footprint. Furthermore, the combined entity's reach is likely dwarfed by Amazon Prime Video, although Amazon maintains a policy of not publicly disclosing its precise subscriber figures, making a direct comparison challenging.

The Nuance of Subscriber Counts: Addressing Duplication in the Streaming Landscape

Ellison's projections, while optimistic, may slightly overstate the unique subscriber base due to an inherent overlap. The proposed merger of Paramount+ and HBO Max into a single service necessitates addressing subscriber duplication. Research from Antenna, a streaming analytics firm, indicates that as of January 2026, 7.6 million U.S. subscribers held active subscriptions to both HBO Max and Paramount+. This means a significant portion—nearly 28% of HBO Max subscribers and over 21% of Paramount+ subscribers in the U.S.—are already paying for both platforms. This crossover suggests that a simple aggregation of subscriber numbers would not accurately reflect the number of distinct individuals subscribing to the new, unified service.

Beyond the Numbers: The Impact of Overlap on Revenue and Market Strategy

The existence of substantial subscriber overlap has direct implications for the financial models of streaming services. When considering a merger and the creation of a single, consolidated platform, a crucial element is the deduplication of subscribers. This process is not merely about subtracting redundant subscriptions; it also involves recalibrating the average revenue per user (ARPU). A merged service would likely introduce new pricing structures, which may not simply be the sum of the individual services' costs. The increase in ARPU for the new, combined offering could lead to a proportional rise in overall subscription revenue, even if the total number of unique subscribers is less than the sum of the original two platforms due to overlap.